Market News for this week

US

§ US consumer sentiment ended unchanged in March from February. The final March reading for the surveys' overall index on consumer sentiment was 73.6, the same as February's, but slightly above the 73 forecast by analysts polled by Reuters. (Source: BT Online)

§ The US economy expanded at 5.6 per cent in the fourth quarter, the government said on Friday, revising downward an earlier estimate of 5.9 per cent gross domestic product growth. (Source: BT Online)

§ President Barack Obama's administration on Friday announced new plans to help up to four million US homeowners. The measures will tap into US$50 billion worth of funding already set aside to help the housing sector. The administration has already spent hundreds of billions of dollars trying to stabilise the housing market and reduce foreclosures. (Source: BT Online)

Singapore

§ Singapore's factory output came in better than expected for a third straight month in February, surging 19.1 per cent year on year as global electronics demand strengthened further. On a seasonally adjusted basis, February's industrial production grew 5.9 per cent from January, the Economic Development Board said yesterday. (Source: BT Online)

§ Visitor arrivals to Singapore jumped 24.2 per cent year-on-year to 857,000 last month, the highest ever recorded in the month of February. Visitor days came in at 3.3 million days, up 16.3 per cent compared to the corresponding month in 2009. (Source: BT Online)

§ Leasing market for non-landed homes showed signs of recovery in the final quarter of 2009. Median rents saw their first quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.5 per cent following five quarters of continued decline from a peak in Q2 2008. The monthly median rent in Q4 2009 was $3.02 per sq ft. Occupancy rates also jumped, achieving 94.5 per cent in Q4 2009. (Source: BT Online)

Greater China Region

· An adviser to the People's Bank of China, Fan Gang, says the mainland could adopt a more flexible exchange rate policy once the global economy is back on a sure footing. In an opinion piece, Mr Fan warned that a revaluation of the yuan would not by itself resolve economic problems in the US such as high unemployment and a massive trade deficit. He said China 's politicians have a domestic agenda just like the Americans. The key element of that agenda is to maintain employment growth. (Source: PBOC)

· A residential site in Tung Chung will become the first site to be auctioned in the coming financial year. A developer triggered the sale by agreeing to submit a minimum bid of almost HK$2.9 billion. The size of the site is 26,200 square metres. The auction will take place in mid-May. It follows successful auctions of sites in Tai Po. (Sources: RTHK)

· Authorities revealed that the growth of new loans supplied by commercial banks remained relatively rapid in March. The new loans supplied by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank, Bank of China, Construction Bank had reached nearly 2,000 billion yuan in the first two weeks of March, which is slightly higher than the same period of last month. - The new loans supplied by the whole banking sector are estimated at about 800 billion to 1 trillion yuan in March. Taking into account the quarter-end performance evaluation of commercial banks and strong corporate credit demand, the impulse of banks to lend is still evident in March.(Source: China Security News)

· On 25 March, the governor of Central bank Zhou Xiaochuan said when attending annual meeting of Inter-American Development Bank, that some of the special incentives can be gradually faded out only if convinced of the economic recovery. The necessary conditions for implementing exit policies also include "make certain that W-shaped economic recovery won’t appear, that is slowdown in economic growth again after experiencing a rebound." - Taking a gradual implementation of exit policies is easier to communicate and can be understood easily by market participants. (Source: PBOC)

· The deputy director of National Development and Reform Commission Xu Xianping revealed that the relevant departments were coming up with a guidance to speed up the development of Yangtze River shipping, aiming at fostering regional economy of Yangtze River as new economic growth of Shanghai shipping economy to drive the economic development of inland rivers. -On A-share market, the listed companies related to transport of Yangtze River area include such 4 port corporations as Shanghai Port Group, Chongqing Gangjiu,Wuhu Port, Hong Kong, Nanjing Port, and Chang Jiang Shipping Group Phoenix whose business focuses on water transport on Yangtze River.(Source: NDRC)

· ICBC announced its intention to issue convertible bonds of not more than 25 billion yuan in A-share market to supplement the capital funds. After this financing, ICBC's capital adequacy ratio will be 12% or more, indicating that in principle it will no longer seek new financing through capital market in the next three years. - Re-financing is needed to further improve capital structure, raise capital quality, and to meet credit needs. However, now ICBC's capital adequacy ratio is still better than the national average, so the specific time of issuing the bonds is still to be selected.(Source: ICBC)

Thailand

· Foreign investors remained net buyers of Thai shares for a 24th consecutive session worth Bt1,007b last Fri. (Source: Bisnews)

· The Finance Ministry is ready to raise Thailand’s GDP growth forecast for 2010 to at least 4% from a previous estimate of at least 3.5% but the figures were still below actual fundamentals as ongoing political chaos would drag growth down below 5%, a source at the ministry said. (Source: Post Today)

· Thai political update: (1) The government and core leaders of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) will hold a second round of talks in a bid to defuse political tensions today after failure thrash out their differences over conditions leading to a house dissolution yesterday as the red shirts put forward a timeframe of 15 days for PM Abhisit Vejjajiva to dissolve the parliament; and (2) a series of explosions hit Bangkok with the latest bomb exploding near a residence of former PM and veteran politician Banharn Silapa-archa at Soi Charan Sanitwong 57 Sunday night. (Source: Krungthep Turakij)

· PM Abhisit Vejjajiva may decide to impose the International Security Act (ISA) in the resort town of Hua Hin to maintain law and order during the Mekong River Commission (MRC) Summit to be held from Apr 2-5, 2010. (Source: Bisnews)

· Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanji sent a signal of interest rate increases once the political situation returned to normal and the economy recovered. He also saw hot money flowing into stock markets but cited that the ongoing baht’s strength did not erode Thailand ’s export competitiveness as the currency appreciation was in line with currencies of its regional competitors. (Source: Krungthep Turakij)

Regional Market Focus for this week

Singapore

§ On Friday (26Mar10), shares in Singapore closed higher, with the STI up by 17.91 points to 2,906.28. Gainers led losers 309 to 167. In the US , stocks initially rose after European Union leaders said they had agreed on a standby aid package for Greece , and after better-than- expected March consumer sentiment data. However, they sold off later during the day to close mostly flat, with the S&P 500 marginally higher by 0.86 point (0.07%) at 1,166.59.

§ Technicals for the STI seem to be leaning harder on the Shanghai Composite at this point in time. The STI continued higher on Friday despite a very obvious rejection of key resistance in the S&P 500 the day before (Thursday, 25Mar10). The Shanghai Composite on the other hand, rallied 50 points from its low on Friday.

§ Price action wise, the technical outlook is currently somewhat unclear due to the conflicting direction given by Shanghai and the S&P 500, as well as the STI’s seeming inability to decide which side to bank on more. We go back to watching key support & resistance levels for clues on the STI’s direction. Resistance is at 2,910 and 2,932 respectively. Support is in the 2,885 to 2,880 region, then 2,870 to 2,865. A breach of support/resistance will give us a directional bias for the STI.

Hong Kong

§ Hong Kong market rallied and the benchmark indexes upped by the most in a week; on the speculation European leaders will form an agreement to ease Greece ’s debt problems. The HSI and the HSCEI gained 274.56pts and 147.84pts respectively settled at 21053.51 and 12050.33. Market turnover was 60.28 billion.

§ We expected that the recent low last week, which closes to 20700 would be, a critical support for the HSI. The US market may consolidate at recent high level and swing within a relatively narrow range before non-farm payrolls announcement this Friday, which limits the upside potential of benchmark indexes. Besides, the volatility of benchmark indexes would be higher resulting from the tightening measures to cool the mainland properties markets. Expected support and resistance today are 20900 and 21258 respectively.

Thailand

§ Thai stocks were extremely volatile throughout the session last Fri before succumbing to a heavy bout of profit taking in late market trading on risk aversion ahead of the red-shirt’s rally over the weekend. The composite SET Index ended the session down 5.5 points in lighter volume while foreign investors remained net buyers of local equities.

§ Even though foreign investors continued to buy local shares for a 24th consecutive session, pushing the main index higher by as much as 11%, net foreign buying was however showing signs of abating in some regional markets, leading to heightened speculation on when foreign fund flows would reverse. Such speculation also led to rising market volatility during the session. In the near term, we still give more weight to the political factor as a second round of talks between the government and the red shirts will take center stage today after failure to reach any common ground on parliament dissolution proposed by anti-government protesters to end the ongoing political stalemate yesterday. On the external front, concerns over Greece ’s debt problems appear to be abating somewhat. In a big picture, we believe the overall Thai market is likely to see a choppy session with a positive bias today.

§ For today’s strategy, we advise investors to look for laggard plays relative to peers or the broad market.

§ Today, resistance on the main index is expected at 793-800 and support at 772-763.

US Market Summary 12 Mar 08

Dow 12,110.24 -46.57 -0.38%
Nasdaq 2,243.87 -11.89 -0.53%
S&P 500 1,308.77 -11.88 -0.90%

Southwest Airlines Co. canceled flights Wednesday and temporarily grounded 43 planes to examine if they were sound enough to carry passengers, the latest twist in the low-cost carrier's saga of missed safety inspections and civil penalties.

As mentioned in the US market summary report yesterday, it is a bear rally.
Hope some of you guys loaded puts or shorted with your CFD account when STI nearing 3000.
We will see some sharp selling today, lock in your profits early when market open and see how the market moves in the second half of trading.
My take is the market is still weak, take cautious approach today.

US Market Summary 11 Mar 08

Dow 12,156.81 +416.66 +3.55%
Nasdaq 2,255.76 +86.42 +3.98%
S&P 500 1,320.65 +47.28 +3.71%

The Fed promised a $200 billion booster shot for ailing markets -- and Wall Street answered with its biggest bounce in more than five years.

Take short long positions and offload when STI nearing 3000.
It will be a short rally as the rally in US market is too sharp.
Take short positions when STI nearing 3000.
Do not be trapped in this rally by panic buying.

US Market Summary 7 Mar 08

Dow 11,893.69 -146.70 -1.22%
Nasdaq 2,212.49 -8.01 -0.36%
S&P 500 1,293.37 -10.97 -0.84%

Wall Street ended a dreadful week with another big loss Friday after the government surprised investors with a report that employers eliminated 63,000 jobs last month. The news compounded fears that the U.S. economy, already hampered by an unrelenting credit crisis, is succumbing to recession.

As advised yesterday, the US market is unpredictable and after a series of roller coaster rides, it ended with another dreadful Friday. Monitor your shorts closely, as the market is unstable at the moment. If STI is unable to maintain the support of 2800, it will go on a downtrend, buy puts to hold if that is the case.

US Market Summary 27 Feb 08

Dow 12,694.28 +9.36 +0.07%
Nasdaq 2,353.78 +8.79 +0.37%
S&P 500 1,380.02 -1.27 -0.09%

Wall Street finished mixed in another seesaw session Wednesday after regulators allowed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy more mortgages and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank will remain vigilant about the weakened economy.

Look out for Asia markets as US close mixed, Nikkei opened red and thus STI and HSI should follow suit.
Wait for sure signs before going into market again.
Profit taking should take place when market open and second half of trading should be a crucial point in determining market sentiments.

US Market Summary 26 Feb 08

Dow 12,684.92 +114.70 +0.91%
Nasdaq 2,344.99 +17.51 +0.75%
S&P 500 1,381.29 +9.49 +0.69%

It's a toxic economic mix the nation hasn't seen in three decades: Prices are speeding upward at the fastest pace in a quarter century, even as the economy loses steam.

Asia markets will rally, expect to see blue chips run today.
Look out for index stocks like Singtel, Wilmar and maybe even China stocks.
Synear may bounce off its lows yesterday.

Sell off before the end of the day and load some puts as Fed Chairman Ben is speaking tonight. Expect some pullback in the US market tonight.

US Market Summary 25 Feb 08

Dow 12,570.22 +189.20 +1.53%
Nasdaq 2,327.48 +24.13 +1.05%
S&P 500 1,371.80 +18.69 +1.38%

Wall Street bolted higher Monday after Standard & Poor's affirmed its ratings for Ambac Financial Group Inc. and MBIA Inc., raising hopes that troubled bond insurers will emerge from the credit market crisis on solid footing.

We will see Asia markets rally today, take note of HSI as it is still quite bearish. Unless it is still strong in the second half of the trading, if not stick to intra day trading.

Take note of commodities counters like Golden Agri and Indoagri.

US Market Summary 22 Feb 08

Dow 12,381.02 +96.72 +0.79%
Nasdaq 2,303.35 +3.57 +0.16%
S&P 500 1,353.11 +10.58 +0.79%

Wall Street staged a dramatic turnaround Friday, shooting higher in the last half-hour of trading after word that a bailout plan for troubled bond insurer Ambac Financial could be announced next week.

This is really a dramatic turnaround as the last 30 min saw a steep rise from the charts. I'm betting on the actual rally of the STI market next week as the news of Singapore hosting 2010 Youth Olympics will take effect.
Property and Hotel stocks will be in play, so look out for stocks like Yongnam, Wee Hur and Koh Bros.
I will post some stock picks soon.

US Market Summary 21 Feb 08

Dow 12,284.30 -142.96 -1.15%
Nasdaq 2,299.78 -27.32 -1.17%
S&P 500 1,342.53 -17.50 -1.29%

The stock market finished with a sharp loss Thursday after bleak readings on the economy heightened investors' fears of recession. The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 140 points.

It would be interesting to see how Asia market would react to the US market as it fell even though US market is up the day before.
Furthermore, the news of Singapore winning the host for the Youth Olympic yesterday should be a catalyst for a property and hotel play today.
We shall see how Asia defend against the red.

US Market Summary 20 Feb 08

Dow 12,427.26 +90.04 +0.73%
Nasdaq 2,327.10 +20.90 +0.91%
S&P 500 1,360.03 +11.25 +0.83%

Stocks came off early losses to finish higher Wednesday as investors set aside some concerns about the economy after finding reassurance that the Federal Reserve remains committed to stoking growth before worrying about inflation.

Asia markets will rally strongly today due to gains from the US market.
I predict HSI especially will be particularly strong today, thus load on china stocks today for the rally and sell off before the end of the day as the market is still very unstable at the time being.
Short term: uptrend

US Market Summary 19 Feb 08

Dow 12,337.22 -10.99 -0.09%
Nasdaq 2,306.20 -15.60 -0.67%
S&P 500 1,348.78 -1.21 -0.09%

Wall Street gave up a big early advance and closed mixed Tuesday after oil prices closed above $100 for the first time and stoked fears that inflation will stymie an already troubled economy.

Asia markets should dip in the morning following weakness in the US market.
But penny stocks will continue to run today in STI as blue chips especially financial sector should suffer today.
Go into breakouts and exit before the end of the day for quick profits.

US Market Summary 15 Feb 08

Dow 12,348.21 -28.77 -0.23%
Nasdaq 2,321.80 -10.74 -0.46%
S&P 500 1,349.99 +1.13 +0.08%

US market ended flat as all are unsure on whether this week is a dead cats' rebound or whether market is bottoming. Asia markets should open green on Monday but all will be uncertain as profit taking will be in place in the second half of the trading.

Take note of the small caps as pennies started to rally since last week. We should be able to see more of it this coming week as well.
I will post some pennies recommendation later.
So stay tuned to the blog.

US Market Summary 14 Feb 08

Dow 12,376.98 -175.26 -1.40%
Nasdaq 2,332.54 -41.39 -1.74%
S&P 500 1,348.86 -18.35 -1.34%

Wall Street retreated Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke predicted a "sluggish" economy until later in the year and more mortgage-related losses at banks. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 175 points.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke did it again as his comments send the market to end on a negative note yesterday.
We will see Asia markets opening red and the afternoon trading session might be a test on how STI will close on Budget Day

Asia Markets Rally

Asia Markets rallied as we see Nikkei and TWI went up 4% to mark a green day.
Europe markets also opened green as hopes are high for US market to end on a positive note tonight.

I'm inching towards the green as charts show that when Dow closed above 12500 yesterday.
But Ben is speaking tonight about the jobless claims and this might affect the market sentiments tonight.

US Market Summary 12 Feb 08

Dow 12,373.41 +133.40 +1.09%
Nasdaq 2,320.04 -0.02 -0.00%
S&P 500 1,348.86 +9.73 +0.73%

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett's offer to help insure municipal bonds assuaged some of the broader market's credit concerns Tuesday, but the troubled bond insurers may have little interest in extra coverage for their best assets.

A sharp recovery from the US Market would see the same thing for Asia markets as well. We may possibly see the same recovery strength for HSI too, and STI may stretch the rally until 15 Feb which is Budget day.

Pennies will continue to run today, go in and exit fast for a quick punt. Do not take overnight positions as retail sales figures may sink US market tonight.

Fed slashes interest rates

Talking about doing the wrong things at the wrong time: The Federal Reserve on Tuesday slashed benchmark U.S. interest rates by a hefty three-quarters of a percentage point in an emergency bid to lend support to a U.S. economy some fear is on the verge of recession.

The Fed's action took the key federal funds rate, which governs overnight lending between banks down to 3.5 percent, its lowest level since September 2005. The Fed also lowered the discount rate it charges on direct loans to banks to 4 percent.

This further strengthens the point of US economy is already in recession, tomorrow we will definitely see the Asia markets dip to new lows.
For those who purchase HSI put warrants today, prepare to cash in tomorrow morning on the gap up.

Tackling Current Market Strategy

As the bloodshed spilled on the Asian market yesterday, you can see that more downside can be seen as both STI and HSI broke their support point.

Today, I expected Asian market to go down more as US market will factor in the drop tonight. Thus buy some index put warrant when market seems to rebound today e.g. HSI put warrant with expiry date in February with considerably high volume transacted. Although I don't encourage holding on to any stocks or warrants in this volatile period, I guess it should be safe to sell tomorrow for some profits.
Cut loss if the trend is reversing.

HSI and STI rebounds

As expected, HSI and STI ended on a positive note in view of a grossly oversold market. I believe the morning plunge causes some panic but if you stick to my call of buying on dips, you would be laughing your way to the bank now.

Tonight, we are expecting Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to give his views of a possible stimulus package. I feel that it should be able to boost the market to end on a triple digit gain.

For tomorrow, you might want to consider buying on dips and selling on gains for HSI index warrants. As tomorrow is Friday, the strategy is to end your trades before 3, as profit taking might take place.

A sea of red

Today must be a sad day for traders and investors alike as they see a sea of red on the portfolio and the world market.
I have already pre-warned a volatile week ahead and urge those who do not have the capital to hold to stay sidelined for the time being.

If tonight US stay green, tomorrow we might see STI and HSI have a short rebound.
But then again, do not hastily jump into the wagon.
Preserve your capital and stay alive until stronger signals appear to indicate the market trend and direction.